Where AJA Stands on the 2024 Election and Key Issues
About the Survey
With an election approaching and one of its major issues (the Israel-Hamas war) heavily on the AJA community’s mind, Palette conducted an anonymous survey of the AJA High School student body’s political opinions. The survey consisted of 5 demographic questions, 7 questions directly about the 2024 election, 8 questions about issues in American politics, and 13 questions about the Israel-Hamas war (covered in a separate Palette article). The survey was administered during English classes, and was also made available to students by Whatsapp. Seventy-two of the high school’s 98 students completed the survey. Readers should therefore be cautious in overgeneralizing with the results, as they only represent 73% of the student body. Nevertheless, Palette believes they are of value. What follows is a comprehensive analysis of those results. If you wish to see an online summary of the survey, you can find it here.
AJA’s Political Makeup
AJA students have political differences. When it comes to political party affiliation, students are split evenly, with 30.6% of respondents identifying with the Democratic party, another 30.6% of respondents identifying with the Republican party, and the remaining 38.8% either unsure of their identification (23.6% of respondents), identifying as Independents (8.3% of respondents), or identifying with a unique fill-in choice, ranging from “Centrist” to “Whichever party supports Israel the most” (together, 7% of respondents).
Notably, party affiliation varied significantly with gender and age. Female respondents were 10.5% more likely to identify with the Democratic Party and 12.5% less likely to identify with the Republican Party than were male respondents. Differences by age group were even more stark, with Upperclassmen respondents nearly three times more likely than Underclassmen respondents to be Democrats. Upperclassmen respondents are also far more likely to identify with one of the two major parties, with 69.4% of them doing so compared to only 52.8% of Underclassmen.
Feelings About the 2024 Presidential Election
Despite an even split between the Democratic and Republican Parties, when it comes to the 2024 Presidential Election, poll respondents show a preference for Joe Biden over Donald Trump. When asked to choose between Trump, Biden, a number of third party candidates, and an “I don’t know” option, 33.3% of respondents chose Biden to only 26.4% who chose Trump. No Democrats or Republicans voted for the opposing party’s candidate, but Democrats were far more likely to vote for their party’s candidate over the “I don’t know” option, with 84.6% doing so, than were Republicans, only 68.2% of whom did. Biden also led Trump among voters unidentified with either party, although only by 3.6%.
Although he leads Trump by 6.9%, Biden’s lead is far from conclusive, seeing as a plurality (37.5%) of respondents selected “I don’t know” when asked to pick a candidate. That number is one of the highest rates of “I don’t know” responses to any question on the survey, behind only two questions about economic policy. Despite general indecision about their vote, respondents seem to display some investment in the election, as 81.9% of respondents said that if they could vote for president in 2024, they would.
Overall lack of enthusiasm for the candidates may be one reason students don’t know who to pick. To a question asking respondents to rate on a scale from 1 to 5 how much they agreed with the statements “I want Joe Biden to win the 2024 Presidential Election” and “I want Donald Trump to win the 2024 Presidential Election,” mean responses were 2.54 and 2.43 respectively, both around a half a point below an even or neutral rating. In other words, on average students didn’t want Trump or Biden to win the election more often and/or more strongly than they wanted one of them to. Although these averages are similarly low for both candidates, a closer look at the data shows very different reasons for this for each candidate.
Trump’s low average score can be accounted for by a significant number of respondents strongly opposing him. In response to the statement that they wanted him to win the election, a striking plurality (43.1%) of respondents chose 1 (strongly disagree), which is 11.2% more than the number of respondents who chose this negative view in response to the same statement about Biden. Trump is also not respondents’ top choice for a Republican president. 70.8% of respondents would prefer Nikki Haley as president over Trump, including 50% of Republicans and 75% of respondents unaffiliated with either of the two major political parties. Nevertheless, a small but significant group of AJA students are enthusiastic about Trump, with 15.3% of respondents choosing 5 (strongly agree) in response to the statement that they want Trump to win the election, which is more than twice as many than chose that rating in response to the same question about Biden.
Low enthusiasm even from his supporters is a big reason for Biden’s low rating. Although 33.3% of respondents said they would vote for Biden against Trump, only 23.6% of them said they agreed or strongly agreed that they wanted him to win the election. Many respondents also strongly oppose Biden, although fewer than oppose Trump. Tied as the most common responses to the statement about wanting Biden to win are 1 (strongly disagree) and 3 (neutral). One significant reason for this opposition and lack of enthusiasm may be Biden’s age. 70.9% of respondents agreed or strongly agreed that “Joe Biden is too old to be president” compared to only 40.3% who thought the same about Trump.
Where AJA Falls on Key Issues
Despite these differences regarding political party affiliation and presidential candidate preferences, some issues appear to unite AJA students. For example, respondents strongly supported the right to abortion, with 45.8% of respondents strongly agreeing and 31.9% agreeing that “Women should have the right to get an abortion,” compared to only 5.6% who disagreed and 5.6% who strongly disagreed. Female respondents generally felt stronger in favor of the right to an abortion, with 63.3% of them strongly agreeing compared to only 33.3% of male respondents who did the same.
Students also seem to agree in their opposition to affirmative action, with 31.9% of respondents strongly disagreeing and 33.3% disagreeing with the idea that “For the sake of diversity, colleges and universities should consider an applicant’s race as part of their admissions process.” Interestingly, although 11.1% of respondents dissented from this consensus by agreeing that race should be considered in admission, no one strongly agreed with the idea, making it the only issue that no students strongly supported.
Respondents also generally agreed about the place of homosexuality in society, with 83.3% of them preferring the statement “Homosexuality should be accepted by society” over “Homosexuality should be discouraged by society.”
For other issues, respondents trend left or right, but agreement is less universal.
Results varied but skewed right-wing on issues of gender and racial equality. Asked to pick between the view that “The obstacles that once made it harder for women than men to get ahead are now largely gone” and the view that those obstacles persist, 50% of respondents identified with the belief that those obstacles are gone, to only 34.7% who think they persist. Asked to pick between the belief that “Our country has made the changes needed to give black people equal rights with white people” and the belief that more changes need to be made to give black people equal rights, 41.7% of students believe sufficient progress has been made and only 33.3% that more changes need to be made.
On economic issues and the fairness of the 2020 election results, responses varied but skewed left-wing. On the election, 50% agreed or strongly agreed that the results were fair, to only 9.8% disagreeing or strongly disagreeing, with many respondents neither agreeing nor disagreeing or answering that they don’t know enough to answer the question. On the economy, respondents identified more with the statement that ”The government should do more to help needy Americans, even if it means going deeper into debt” than with the statement that “The government today can’t afford to do much more to help the needy,” by 9.7%, and they agreed that the American economic system unfairly favors powerful interests by 19.4%. As notable on these questions as the liberal lean of those who chose a position is the number of respondents who opted out of the questions, with 54.2% and 44.4% of respondents respectively choosing “I don’t know enough to answer this question.” AJA students seem least confident in their political knowledge of the economy.
How Do AJA Students of Today Compare to AJA Students of Three Years Ago
Five questions asked on this year’s survey were the same as questions asked of students three years ago by a previous Palette Politics Survey.
On all these questions, this year’s respondents were far more likely to respond, “I don’t know enough to answer this question,” but this may be accounted for by quirks of survey administration and not by an actual decline in political knowledge. The survey from three years ago reached fewer students (39 compared to this year’s 72), and the students it did reach were those who opted in to a political survey, making them more likely to know enough to answer questions.
Nevertheless, other differences may be more valuable indications of political shift. Namely, comparison of the surveys seems to indicate that AJA high schoolers of today are more conservative on many socioeconomic issues than they were three years ago.
In terms of economic policy, respondents from three years ago were very left-wing, preferring to do more to help the needy, even if it meant going into deeper debt, over not doing more to help the needy, by more than 2 to 1, and agreeing that the American economic system unfairly favors powerful interests by a ratio of nearly 3 to 1. Those ratios of support are down, in this year’s survey, to 3 to 2 and 2 to1 respectively.
On social issues, the right-wing shift has been enough to change the majority opinion from what it was three years ago. Three years ago, 3 out of every 4 respondents who knew enough to answer the question felt that our country needs to continue making changes to ensure equality for black people. This year, a majority of those who knew enough to answer the question believe the opposite. Similarly, three years ago, more than 2 out of every 3 respondents who knew enough to answer the question felt that significant obstacles still make it harder for women to get ahead than men. This year, a majority of respondents believe that those obstacles are gone.
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