Where AJA Stands on the 2024 Election, Just Hours Before Polls Close
AJA’s political makeup changed significantly since last March, when Palette conducted a student poll on the 2024 election. In last year’s poll, students were split evenly between the Democratic and Republican party, with 30.6% identifying with each major party (the remaining students were unsure of their party, identified as Independent, or entered a unique fill-in choice). This year, the results of AJA High School’s October 30 mock election indicate a conservative shift among the student body. A plurality, 47.6% of students, identify most with the Republican party (up 17 percentage points from last year), and 28.6% identify most with the Democratic party (down 4 percentage points from last year).
Palette conducted its own exit poll at the mock election, to which 80 of the high school’s 91 students responded. Using these results, this article aims to explore the shift in AJA High School’s political makeup since last year, its extent, its causes, and the role that the change of the Democratic candidate from Joe Biden to Kamala Harris played in this shift. Though 6 less students responded to Palette’s exit poll than voted in the mock-election, Palette believes these results are nevertheless of value.
(For a full summary of the mock-election and exit poll click here)
Shifts in AJA’s Political Makeup By Gender
The conservative lean may come down to changes in party affiliation by specific demographics.
Last spring, the percentage of female respondents who identified as Democrats (36.7%) was 10.5 percentage points higher than the percentage of male respondents who identified as Democrats (26.2%). This fall, that difference changed by almost threefold, with female respondents being 28.1 percentage points higher in Democratic identification.
Female respondents were 22.8% more likely to affiliate with one of the two major political parties this year than they were last year. Although females demonstrated greater interest in both parties, this year saw slightly larger growth in the conservative segment. The percentage of respondents identifying as Democrats increased by 9 percentage points since last year, and those identifying as Republicans increased by 13.8 percentage points.
For male respondents, the conservative shift is more pronounced, with a 20.6 percentage point increase in Republican affiliation compared to last year, while Democratic affiliation among males dropped by 9.5 percentage points. Therefore, though more of the AJA High School student body identifies with the Republican party this year, that increase is fueled in larger part by male than female students.
…By Grade
Note that Palette’s March 2024 in-class politics survey and October 2024 mock-election exit poll were conducted differently and reached varying portions of the student body. Readers should therefore be cautious in generalizing trends, as last year’s poll had fewer respondents (72 of 98 students) compared to this year’s (80 of 91 students). To reduce sample bias, Palette will compare only the three classes present in both polls, excluding last year’s seniors and this year’s freshmen.
Last year’s data set indicated an even split between Republicans and Democrats, with 30.6% of students identifying with either party. After removing the 12th grade students who have since graduated, the data leans to the right, with the percentage of respondents who identified as Republicans (29.2%) being 6.3 percentage points higher than the percentage of respondents who identified as Democrats (22.9%).
This year’s data reveals a larger conservative margin, with 19 percentage points more respondents identifying as Republican than Democrat. However, when excluding the freshmen who did not participate in last year’s poll, the Republican margin decreases to 14 percentage points.
The conservative shift in the student body persists, but to a lesser extent, when excluding these classes from the data set. Even after adjusting, there remains a 7.7 percentage point increase in Republican identification compared to last year.
…By Enthusiasm For Candidates
In last year’s poll, Democrat President Joe Biden led Republican former President Donald Trump by 6.9 percentage points. This year, Trump led Harris by 23.2 points. It is important to note that last year’s survey included an “I don’t know option” whereas this year’s poll did not. The following section aims to analyze the significance of Trump’s new lead given that inconsistency, focusing on how the switch in AJA High School’s leading candidate was also accompanied by a change in student enthusiasm about their options.
To a question last year asking respondents to rate on a scale of one to five how much they agree with the statements “I want Joe Biden to win the 2024 Presidential Election” and “I want Donald Trump to Win the 2024 Presidential Election,” mean responses were 2.54 and 2.43 respectively, both below a neutral rating.
To the adjusted “I want Kamala Harris to win the 2024 Presidential Election” and “I want Donald Trump to Win the 2024 Presidential Election,” mean responses were 2.31 and 3.44 respectively, reflecting a small 0.23 dip in the average rating for the Democratic candidate and a full point jump in the rating for the Republican candidate.
Trump’s low average score last year (2.43) resulted from a significant number of respondents strongly opposing him. 43.1% of students chose one (strongly disagree) to the statement that they wanted him to win the election. This plurality was 11.2 percentage points higher than the number of students who chose this negative view in response to the same statement about Biden.
This year’s 1-point boost in Trump’s rating can be attributed to the plurality of respondents who chose five (strongly agree to the statement “I want Donald Trump to win the 2024 Presidential Election”) as well a 24.3 percentage drop to 18.8% of respondents choosing one (strongly disagree) to that statement.
Although the 0.23 dip in Harris’ rating from Biden’s is less significant, the distribution of her ratings are far different than Biden’s were last year. Biden’s 2.54 average resulted from low enthusiasm even from those who supported him last year (33.3% of students said they would vote for Biden, but only 23.6% agreed or strongly agreed that they wanted him to win the election). Enthusiasm about Harris from her voters is greater, with the mean response to the statement “I want Kamala Harris to win the 2024 Presidential Election” being 4.18 out of 5 among her voters. Alongside stronger support for Harris is stronger dissent. The percentage of respondents who chose one (strongly disagree) for their enthusiasm about Harris is 16.9 percentage points higher than it was for Biden last year and 30 percentage points higher than it is for Trump this year.
Interestly, no Democrats or Republicans voted for the opposing party’s candidate last year. Five did this year, however, with two Republicans voting for Harris and three Democrats voting for Trump.
Impact of the Change in Democratic Candidate
Aiming to understand the causes of AJA High School’s shifted political demographics, Palette asked students to consider the impact of the change of the Democratic nominee from Joe Biden to Kamala Harris.
Beyond increased polarization regarding Harris (evident in the larger number of students who chose “strongly agree” or “strongly disagree” in response to the statement about wanting Harris to win compared to Biden), the change of Democratic candidate seemed to influence students’ voting practices.
Among Harris voters, 60.7% said the change from Biden to Harris made them more likely to vote Democrat. By contrast, 69.2% of Trump voters said this change made them more likely to vote Republican. For those who did not identify with either major party, 61.9% said that the change of the Democratic candidate makes them more likely to vote Republican this year, and 33.3% said they are more likely to vote Democrat due to the change from Biden to Harris. The greater conservative shift among unaffiliated students can explain Trump’s 23.8 percentage point lead within this group.
When asked if they would prefer Biden or Harris elected into office in 2024, students were split almost evenly. Broken down by party affiliation, 88.9% of Democrats preferred Harris, demonstrating the enthusiasm for Harris among respondents who identify with the Democratic party. 75.6% of Republicans and 73.1% of Trump voters preferred Biden to Harris, indicating the potential that a preference for Biden pushed some students to vote for Trump when Biden switched with Harris on the ticket.
To the optional free response question “explain how the change of the Democrat candidate on the ticket affects your views or voting practices,” student responses ranged from “I think Kamala is more qualified than Joe Biden” and “it didn’t affect my voting practice because I would vote against Trump under any circumstance” to “the late change bypassed political traditions and took the choice away from people” and “Harris hasn’t done anything as VP, what makes us believe she will as president.”
Comments are closed.