ANALYSIS: The Dunning-Kruger Effect and How It Is Reflected in Students’ Confidence

Examining Why AJA Girls Reported Lower Levels of Political Knowledge

Ella Goldstein

During the modern age of instant information, more and more teenagers are showing interest in politics and becoming politically active, a trend which seems to be true at AJA. Even so, based on the results of a Palette-administered politics survey, girls at AJA were more likely to say that they knew less about politics and that they didn’t know enough information to answer a question. Survey-takers were asked about their own political knowledge on a scale from 1-10, with 1 meaning the least knowledgeable and 10 meaning the most. For girls, the most common response was 5, followed by 8 and 1. Not a single girl who filled out the survey claimed that their political knowledgeability was 10/10, while 10% of boys claimed that their political knowledgeability was at the maximum. Additionally, none of the boys who filled out the survey marked their political knowledgeability at 1/10, while more than 10% of girls did. We have no reason to suspect that girls at AJA are less knowledgeable than their male counterparts, yet the imbalance exists in the reported numbers. This dynamic doesn’t just exist among the girls at AJA, but represents a widespread phenomenon. 

Cornell psychologists David Dunning and Justin Kruger conducted studies on self-confidence. Their theory, eponymously named the Dunning-Kruger effect, explains “the tendency for some people to substantially overestimate their abilities.” The theory states, “The less competent people are, the more they overestimate their abilities.” Later, Dunning and Washington State University psychologist Joyce Ehrlinger found that the effect was more common in men, while women’s confidence in their abilities was much lower. But based on the result of their studies, Dunning and Ehrlinger found that men and women performed at the same level. So what makes women and girls less confident in their abilities and, specifically in our case, their extent of political knowledge? 

Some AJA students shared their observations about why the noted dynamics might occur. Racheli Seeman, a junior, shared that “as young girls, especially in our sheltered Jewish community, we are expected to be much less opinionated (or at least less vocal) than the men, and [instead] just follow the general consensus, whatever that may be. While most of us know and reject that belief, it is still embedded in our education and society.” 

“Later, Dunning and Washington State University psychologist Joyce Ehrlinger found that… women’s confidence in their abilities was much lower.”

Senior Katherine Cranman agreed, adding that women who are more vocal and open “are often asked to justify our political beliefs, as if we are not entitled to having our own opinions and ideas.” 

Because so much pressure is put on women and girls when they speak up, it “culminates in internalized self-doubt that can be so severe that it stops women from truly realizing or developing their political beliefs,” Racheli explained. 

“Assuming that AJA boys and girls are equally knowledgeable about politics, boys appear more likely to overestimate their abilities, while the reverse seems true for girls.”

Palette made repeated attempts through the “Nashim” WhatsApp group, which includes all of the girls in the High School, to reach female students who disagreed with Racheli and Katherine’s assessments, but none volunteered to speak to Palette. On a similar (but not identical) question in the Palette survey, 16% of girls — including 28% of lowerclassmen girls (about another 15% in each category said they didn’t know enough to answer the question) — responded, “The obstacles that once made it harder for women than men to get ahead are now largely gone,” as opposed to “There are still significant obstacles that make it harder for women to get ahead than men.” Although it is unknown how students who responded a certain way on one question would feel on a non-identical topic, it seems likely that at least a (non-vocal) minority of girls at AJA feel free to speak out on their own beliefs without feeling added societal pressure because of their gender.

Not many people would consider High School students political experts. However, it appears that some AJA students have reached the point on the Dunning-Kruger where they have started to overestimate the extent of their knowledge. The data from the Palette survey supports Ehrlinger’s findings: Assuming that AJA boys and girls are equally knowledgeable about politics, boys appear more likely to overestimate their abilities, while the reverse seems true for girls.